Wednesday, 15 June 2011
According to Thailand military claimed by top brass, Thailand can easily take over Cambodia in 3 weeks if full scale invasion were to happen. Thai military had gravely misjudged Cambodia's ability to defend her sovereignty. Thailand had always assumed and underestimated Cambodia's military strength and ability to fight. All those clashes since 2008 to the latest in April 2011, Cambodia had not lost an inch of her position. In fact, Hun Sen restraint his battlefield commanders to not advance forward because Cambodia is not an invader but a defender. Those commanders were ordered to defend the position only. And defending they did. If Cambodia military were to advance forward, they could have captured and taken over those Thai positions destroyed by Cambodian artillery and BM-21 rocket launchers. Thai military became frustrated and unleashed some of the biggest guns such as cluster ammunitions and 3Quinuclidinyl Benzilate(QNB) poison gas to crack Cambodia's military position, again, Thai military failed. We would thought that as great as Thailand military is, Cambodia wouldn't even have a chance to fire back. I say damn those that underestimated Cambodia.
In 2008, many Western and Thai experts predicted that Cambodia’s army is unlikely to be defeated by its much larger neighbor Thailand. “It would be a suicide for the Cambodian side to attack the Thais. "Basically, on paper, Thailand is much stronger militarily than Cambodia,” said Tim Huxley, executive director of the IISS-Asia, adding that Cambodia’s annual defense budget is about $140 million and Thailand’s is 25 times that-$3.5 billion.
The Thais and the westerners considered Cambodia's weapons as cold war era weaponry and will not sustain the onslaught of the more modern high-tech American-made F16 killing machines. It seem that Cambodian army won't last for a day if the fighting occur. That was the prediction in 2008.
On 4 Feb 2011, it was the bloody clash of the decade which lasted for few hours. The Thais onslaught from every angles tried to push through Cambodian defend line and Cambodia army unleashed the fire from the hellish BM-21 rockets which carpeted the Thais with rockets and they brought the Thai army to its knees. The Thais will not concede defeat that easily and they brought in the cluster bombs ( the banned munitions) to fired at Cambodian troops. The fighting lasted for 4 days and Cambodian army were still standing. It is the first time that Thai had fight the real army, not with the civilian protesters in Bangok or the Thai insurgents in the south.
It signalled how desperate was Thai army which showed its willingness to use the banned munitions which widely condemned by international community afterward .
The clash in Feb and April 2011 clearly indicated the inability of Thai army to defeat a smaller Cambodian army and it might end up with Cambodia defeating Thailand instead, in contrast to the theory of the people who never fought the real war who are only sitting behind the desk and predicting on the papers.
If it escalates into a full scale war, and the war drag on for a couple of years and Cambodia has the medium range rockets that can hit Thai airports, the entire Thailand economy will collapse and Thailand will face the bankruptcy. That is the price of war if Thailand wants to start one.
To the contrast Thailand leadership never asking Cambodia for peaceful resolution current Thai leader only asked Cambodia to concede defeat,"Thailand stand on Preah Vihear issue will not change,If Cambodia not surrender the 4.6khm2 peacefully Thailand will back it claim by force" and Thailand have gone it so since 2008-2011.
Cambodian prime minister asking for the border dispute issues through peaceful negotiations, not mean Cambodia leader is weak and Cambodia concede defeat ,and not willing to a fight,that is totally wrong, it mean he is exhaust through the diplomatic channel and Thai leader refuse to accept the peaceful mean.
Cambodia leader quietly out-maneuver Thailand without Thailand leadership realize the "predator of Thailand is become Cambodian prey" and any future fighting erupt it not the responsible of the Cambodian.
Cambodia leader have put Cambodia in the position that immunity from blame,From now on Cambodia have the leeway to defend and offences and use any means without any blames from the world community, Cambodia have exhausted all the diplomatic options but Thailand leader adamant on backing its claim by force, don't blame Cambodia, Cambodia want peace, But Thailand doesn't want peace, so the end result is fighting.
sorry for the hasty spelling